Dr. Abdul Rauf Iqbal
Russo-Ukraine war and Israel-Palestine conflicts are distinct issues due to their peculiar economic, historical, political, and strategic contexts. But, due to globalisation, conflict in a region has spillover and spill-out effects on the other regions. When the US-led Europe was busy supporting Ukraine against Russia, Hamas attacked Israel. The timing of this event has significant implications for both Ukraine and Israel as both states are dependent on the US for their defence. Meanwhile, Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy in Syria and Iranian counter attacks on Israel have further complicated the regional security environment. In this background, it is important to understand the implications of Israel-Palestine conflict and Russo-Ukraine war on the US.
Israel-Palestine conflict is a longstanding issue in the Middle East and has been affecting regional geopolitics for decades. Israel is being supported by the US-led Europe while China and Russia are increasing their diplomatic engagements with the Muslim countries. Resultantly, there is an arms race in the Middle East and Europe due to the global contestation between the major powers. The increase in defence budget of both regions indicates as such.
Russo-Ukraine war has not only threatened the European security system, but it is also affecting geoeconomic and geopolitical dynamics. It is transforming major powers' strategic trajectories, alignments, and it is also adversely impacting food and energy security. Some scholars argue that Ukraine is a geopolitical tool of the West to weaken Russia. While others consider that Russia is covertly supporting Hamas to pressurise the US. Whatever the case may be, both conflict zones have become battlegrounds for geopolitical contestation between the US and Russia.
Defence statistics highlight Ukraine and Israel's dependency on the US. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the US has allocated $75 billion to Ukraine since the start of Russo-Ukraine war in February 2022. The 62 percent ($46 billion) of aid pertains to the defence sector which includes $23.5 billion for weapons and equipment, $18.3 billion for security assistance and $4.5 billion for grants and loans through Foreign Military Finance Programme. This amount does not include the EU’s defence support to Ukraine.
Similarly, Israel, since its inception in 1948, has received about $300 billion ($81 billion in economic and $216 billion in military) assistance from the US. Without any mutual defence pact like Japan and NATO, Israel is privileged to get the most advanced American military hardware and technologies. According to the Washington Post, the US has approved more than 100 weapons sales to Israel post 7 October 2023, the exact amount of these weapons has not been released.
The increased US military support may not seem sustainable; however, these conflicts have increased the revenue of military industrial complexes (MICs) of the US. According to Reuters, the revenue of General Dynamics' Combat Systems increased by 25%, Raythom Technologies Corporation got extra orders of $3 billion and Northrop Grumman's orders increased by 6%. To sum up, the continuation of conflicts is in the interest of MICs or the corporate US. Geoeconomically, these conflicts benefit the US rather than hurting it, as is generally perceived.
The geostrategic positioning of the US versus Russia is also interesting to note. Albeit its massive military support to Ukraine and Israel, the US forces are not directly fighting in both regions; however, Russia is directly facing Ukraine. In the recent Iran-Israel standoff, President Biden reiterated that the US would support Israel without participating in any “offensive operations against Iran”.
The information domain also presents an interesting insight into how global public opinion is shaped or manipulated. Western media and academic discourse allege Russia as an “aggressor” to justify American support to Ukraine in the name of “territorial integrity” and protection of “sovereignty” while ignoring the threats to Russian security. Likewise, Hamas’ attacks are juxtaposed as “terrorism” to rationalise Israel’s attacks on Palestine. Maybe that is the reason that according to the Pew Research Centre, 74% of American view Russo-Ukraine war and 75% view Israel-Palestine conflict as important to US national interests. These figures indicate the use of information warfare in both conflicts. A few media houses like CGTN and RT project a balanced view of the conflicts but their outreach is not comparable with famous western media platforms.
Russo-Ukraine war and Iran-Israel standoff have implications for global energy security. In this context, OPEC countries, China and Russia have stakes in maintaining peace and security in the broader region. The growing Chinese and Russian engagements with Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Chinese backed Saudi-Iran rapprochement are cases in point. Contrary to the US political rhetoric of regional stability, its continued military support to Israel and Ukraine can escalate the conflict and chaos.
To sum up, these conflicts have benefited the US at two levels. First, the US has been successful in engaging the opposing countries in one way or the other. Second, the dependency of its allies has increased on the US. In Europe, despite ‘military setbacks’ as the ‘Ukrainian counteroffensive’ could not defeat Russia, the US has succeeded in entangling Russia for the last three years. Moreover, European security dependence on the US has increased drastically, which ultimately benefits the US economy. Similarly in the Middle East, not only Israel’s dependence on the US has enhanced but it has also successfully involved Iran. The situation indicates that it is in the strategic interest of the US to avoid finding any diplomatic or military breakthroughs in these conflicts. This will have negative implications for the current global order. To further enhance its influence, the US may ignite any other conflict to engage China, probably in Taiwan, leading to an explosive global contestation. The effects of this confrontation will not be limited to the conflict zones and will also affect other countries including Pakistan. Our policymakers should remain cognisant of the environment.